Thursday, September 25, 2008

Global Cash Flow Questions and Answers

In the Question and Answer segment of Webcast on Global Cash Flow on September 25th, we responded to the questions submitted.  However, we have repeated the questions (slightly edited in some instances) and have provided more detailed answers to each below. 

Katy asks ...

Q. If the guarantor of the borrowing company has 40 or more other
companies, is there a good way to narrow them down before performing
an analysis?

A. Not necessarily.  To narrow down in any way requires enough initial information to make a judgment about which of the companies are worth a second look and which are not.  We are stuck, in effect, with acquiring and reviewing all the necessary information.  But such a review may lead quickly to the companies and events that are critical to further assessment.

Katy asks ...

Q. Is it not necessary to get the tax returns for all related companies?

A. It may not always be necessary but it is always an excellent idea to ask for and obtain all the business income tax returns.  If you do so, you likely have the information you need early on in any analysis and will not have to burden the borrower with additional requests.

Katy asks ...

Q. If one of the related parties is the guarantor's trust, how do you know the cash inflows and outflows coming from the trust?

A. You have to ask the trustees or the trust executor or administrator.   The business income tax returns – Form 1041 – do not provide the necessary information.  Schedule E on the personal income tax returns will list estate income, but that income may not be cash to the individual.

Leslie asks ...

Q. What is the debt service capacity for these entities?

A. You can estimate that with fairly precise accuracy by using our Debt Capacity Worksheet.  If you are an Organization member, log on and click “Commercial Loans” under “Worksheets” in the left panel.  Then select the Debt Capacity link.  That brings you to the Debt Capacity Worksheet.  Using the financial statement information we provided for the Webcast, enter data in the worksheet using the Data Input link for guidance.  You might be quite surprised at the results.

Wes asks ...

Q. Should a client own several different entities, each with different financial year-ends, can we use internally prepared financial statements for a particular year-end such as December 31 as a reasonably reliable way to calculate global cash flow?

A. If you feel comfortable that your internal estimates are roughly accurate, I’d do so.  However, keep in mind that the borrower does have the ability to provide you with a full set of statements for any financial year-end you choose.  The balance sheet is simple.  The borrower might have to make a few income tax adjustments for a Subchapter C corporation if it were attempting to provide a full year income statement that differed from the stated financial year-end.  But the results should be a very good approximation to actual events.  For non-Subchapter C corporations, in which the company does not compile a year-end tax obligation, the process of providing full year income statements is far simpler.

Jason asks ...

Q. Are there any rules of thumb to follow in trying to reconcile company prepared, interim financials with previous year tax returns?

A. There is a real danger in attempting to use interim statements in virtually any way.  If you had a six-month interim, for example, there would be a temptation to annualize it and compare it to the prior year’s income tax returns.  But the six-month statement may include seasonality that will abate in the final six months.  Therefore, the comparison or reconciliation would have no meaning and could be quite misleading. 

Further, interim statements frequently omit key amounts and values.  Depreciation expense and accumulated depreciation may not be current.  The borrower may forget to accrue interest expense, so the interest expense amount is understated.  Further, revenues are frequently overstated and expenses understated since some goods or services booked as revenue may not have been delivered and all expenses may not be properly recorded.  Tread very carefully with interim statements.

Anonymous

Q. Loans from shareholders be hidden in the statement of owners’ equity and if so how would you determine that?

A.   If they were hidden, the company or accountant would need to classify a loan from a shareholder as a capital injection, which is faulty or fraudulent accounting.  If the company or accountant did so, there would be no way to detect it.  The balance sheet would not reflect an increase in Due to Shareholders.  It would reflect an increase in Paid in Capital.  However, the cash impact would be identical regardless of classification.  A loan from shareholders or a capital injection from shareholders represents a cash inflow.

Debra asks ...

Q. What is the difference between M-1 depreciation on corporate tax
returns and depreciation reported on the front page of Form 1120?

A. M1 is designed to reconcile book income with tax income.  At Line 5a on Schedule M-1, the taxpayer lists any amounts of depreciation recorded on the accrual financial statements that were not recorded on the business income tax returns.  That would occur if depreciation expense for the year recorded on the accrual financial statements were greater than the depreciation expense recorded on the business income tax returns. 

Note that Line 8a on Schedule M-1 provides for the amount of depreciation recorded on the business income tax returns that was not recorded on the accrual financial statements. 

Depending on the amount of depreciation expense recorded on both the accrual financial statements and on the business income tax returns, the taxpayer will usually provide an amount at Line 5a or at Line 8a – but not on both lines. 

The reason that depreciation expense may be different for financial statements and business income tax returns reflects the fact that businesses usually accelerate depreciation expense for income tax purposes, which drives down taxable profit, but straight-line depreciation expense for financial statement purposes, which provides a lesser amount of depreciation expense and, therefore, greater accrual profit. 

Tim asks ...

Q. Should we determine and take the amount of interest expense between related parties into the cash flow?

A. Yes indeed.  You could add a line below each of the related companies in the Global Cash Flow Worksheets and record the amount of interest income or interest expense per related company.  If the data is good and valid, the sum of interest income and interest expense will be zero, since interest income for one related company is interest expense for another related company.

Tim asks ...

Q. Your presentation is confusing on Sequoia when you discuss the large cash demands in 2008.  In the UCA cash flow you show all the  obligations as an increase in long-term debt.  Shouldn't some of that be in increases to short term debt?

A. You’re right.  Some of that increase should be in short-term debt and it actually was.  But it wasn’t short-term interest bearing debt.  It was short-term supplier credit.  Note the increase in accounts payable from the UCA cash flow statement was $1,970,653 and the increase in accrued liabilities was $421,706 – a total increase of $2,392,359.  That was, in effect, the short-term debt increase.  The problem for Sequoia is that these trade creditors will put immense pressure on the company to pay those outstanding amounts in 2008.  That will force Sequoia to seek replacement financing in the form of either short-term or long-term interest bearing debt – or to tap into the cash generated by one or more of its related companies.  Either way, it will likely be very difficult to find the replacement financing.

Tim asks ...

Q. So the increase in LTD includes the increase in the CPLTD?

A. Not quite.  The increase in 2007 long-term debt is calculated by measuring 2007 long-term debt – the current maturities + the remaining amount classified as long-term debt – against the 2006 long-term debt, which does not include 2006 current maturities.  In the UCA cash flow statement, we account for the 2006 current maturities immediately following Net Cash Income.   Therefore, the amount of new long-term debt in 2007 is the increase in 2006 long-term debt, i.e., 2007 current maturities (which is long-term debt reclassified as current liabilities since it is due to be paid down in the next operating period) + 2007 long-term debt measured against 2006 long-term debt.

Karen asks ...

Q. What would we be missing using EBITDA instead of the UCA cash flow?

A. You would be missing the cash flow absorbed or released by balance sheet events, which could be massive.  EBITDA is an accrual income statement concept.  It is a very rough proxy for actual cash flow available to pay for income taxes and debt service.  We can determine actual cash flow by integrating the income statement with the balance sheet.   In most instances, actual cash flow is vastly different from EBITDA.  It may be more than EBITDA or it may be less – and usually it differs by a considerable margin.  To be safe, stick with the UCA cash flow statement.  It illustrates the actual cash position of a borrower.  EBITDA is simply a guess based on incomplete information.

Todd asks ...

Q. Do you have the Excel files for today's Global Cash Flow seminar  available, i.e., the ones that are contained within the slides?

A. We don’t have underlying Excel files for the UCA cash flow statements.  We generated those statements from proprietary software – Shockproof! Analytics – that we use for analysis.  Organization members have access to that software.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Retail Sales and Commercial Properties

In August, retail sales dropped for the second month in a row. Retail sales were down by 0.3% following a 0.5% decline in July. Not surprising, flagging consumer spending is reflected in rising vacancy rates and falling rental rates in shopping malls across the U.S.

For example, the vacancy rate for strip malls is presently 8.2%, the highest since 1995. The average asking rental rate declined by 0.4% from the first quarter to the second quarter of this year.

Further, the vacancy rate for regional malls is now 6.3% - or an occupancy level of 93.7%. For regional malls that opened in the first half of 2008, the occupancy level was approximately 63%. By comparison, the average occupancy level for regional malls that opened in 2007 was 72%.

The prognosis is hardly encouraging. The International Council for Shopping Centers expects 6,500 chain stores will close this year. Many have already, given bankruptcy filings of Mervyn’s, Linens ‘n Things, Boscov’s, and the Sharper Image. In many instances, neighboring stores in a shopping center may either exit or request a rent reduction – both of which put downward pressure on net operating income and debt service ability.

Shopping centers and malls limited to large or medium size stores may be most heavily impacted by the bankruptcy or departure of an anchor tenant simply because it is usually more difficult to find replacement tenants as the economy continues to stagnate.

The consumer does drive the economy. It may take time for the ripple effect of flat or falling retail spending to fully work through the economy in pushing up shopping center vacancy rates and pushing down shopping center rental rates. As always, the effects will be uneven market by market in terms of both impact and timing.

For example, the Oakland/East Bay market is presently the most robust among all major markets with a 2.4% vacancy rate, according to Reis, Marcus & Millichap Research Services. Yet the Oakland/East Bay market is broadly bordered by several cities and municipalities with some of the highest residential foreclosure rates in the country. Immunity may prevail in this particular market, but we shouldn’t be surprised if it does not.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

A Foreign Dimension of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

As we all know, AFannie Mae and Freddie Mac are in the process of becoming, or have virtually become, wholly owned government agencies.  At the point of collapse and government take-over, their shares traded for approximately $1 a share.  In early October 2007, Fannie Mae shares traded at roughly $67 a share, while those of Freddie Mac traded at approximately $63 a share.  In other words, the equity investors have been wiped out in eleven months – another fatality in the continuing subprime saga that seems to drag on endlessly.

One interesting dimension of this sorry tale has an international flavor.  The major holder of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed debt – not equity – is China at almost $400 billion.  Next in line?  Japan at roughly $230 billion dollars, followed by Russia at $75 billion.  Had the government failed to act, those mortgage-backed securities would have suffered a fate very similar to that of their subprime counterparts – sudden illiquidity and uncertain value.  Keep in mind that these countries – and a host of others – have billions of additional dollars invested in an array of U.S. money market and government securities, reflecting the huge trade surpluses they have run continuously with the U.S. over the past several decades.

Given years of living beyond our means by virtue of easy credit and accelerating consumption, we have traded dollars for every imaginable import.  Foreign governments and foreign corporations hold these excess dollars, invested in numerous U.S. financial instruments.  If their confidence in the ultimate value of these dollar holdings begins to waver, the repercussions for the international financial system could be quite alarming and rather chaotic as foreign investors dump their dollar assets. 

But there may be a silver lining.  Because of the absolute necessity of maintaining confidence in the U.S. economy and in the U.S. financial system, the U.S. government, with the support and assistance of Congress, may actually take steps to prevent a resurgence of the obscene abuses within the financial system that have placed us in such jeopardy. 

The audacity of hope?